How will the University’s estate be affected by climate change?

In December of 2018, Sir David Attenborough spoke at the opening of the UN climate change conference in Poland: "Right now, we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale. Our greatest threat in thousands of years, climate change. If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon".

This was a clear message to governments taking part in the climate talks, but closer to home how will the University of Cambridge’s estate be impacted by climate change? While the University is working hard to reduce its own contribution to climate change through a focus on reducing its carbon emissions, it is also important to consider the potential impacts of climate change on the University’s operations.

Earlier this year, Estate Management commissioned a study to investigate this issue. The study was compiled by looking at projections of the future climate in Cambridge and analysing how these could impact the management of the University’s estate and operations. Here are some of the key findings.

Changes to the climate in Cambridge

Projected changes by the middle of the century (2050) include:

• Dry spells to more than double (up from 6 per year to 13 per year).
• A reduction in prolonged cold spells (down from 4 to 3 per year).
• An increase in number of high precipitation events (exceeding 25mm) from 6 to 13 per year.
• Heatwave conditions (more than 3 consecutive days when highest annual daily max and min temperature are exceeded by 5°C) to more than double from 7 to 15 per year.
• Increased frequency and severity of high wind events (although there is high uncertainty on this).

By the end of the century (2100), there could be significant changes to the local climate, including:

• Average summer temperature could be up to 7.8°C higher than the average temperatures seen between 1961-1990, and average winter temperature could be up to 5.6°C higher.
• Average daily maximum temperatures could also increase by as much as 10.4°C in the Summer. In winter it could increase by as much as 6.6°C. Average daily minimum temperatures are also projected to increase.
• Rainfall seasonality is also likely to change, with more in winter and less in summer. Reductions of rainfall in the summer, combined with higher temperatures, may lead to incidences of water shortage. Wetter winters (up to 60% increase in precipitation by the end of the century) could potentially mean more thunderstorms and more flooding.

All of the above projected changes are based on modelling of a ‘high emissions’ scenario, meaning that it assumes high levels of climate-warming greenhouse gases will be emitted. While this may seem pessimistic or risk-averse, this BBC article gives a useful layman’s overview of why we are well off track in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions over this century (and therefore preventing climate change from happening), in spite of the Paris Climate Agreement back in 2015.

Impacts on the University’s estate and operations

Informed by these projections of climate change in Cambridge, staff in Estate Management carried out a ‘screening exercise’ looking at the University’s approximately 340 buildings to see how they could be impacted by climate change. The exercise found that:

• 48% of all assets are exposed to flood risk, meaning they fall within an Environment Agency flood zone 2 or 3. Flooding can be caused by rivers like the Cam, or by surface water flooding, which typically occurs when rainfall doesn’t drain into the ground quickly enough. Although the risk of flood in EA flood zones is relatively low (flood zones 2 and 3 equate to a 1% or 0.1% annual chance of flooding respectively), the impact of a flood could still be significant to University operations. An interesting map was produced as part of the report which shows what University building footprints overlap with flood zones.

• 28 buildings are particularly vulnerable to overheating. Typically, these are buildings with large areas of glazing, poor insulation or lack of shading on south-facing elevations.
• 33 assets may have heightened vulnerability to high wind events, chiefly due to the proximity of large trees, or storage of plant/equipment on roofs.
• 81 assets were also found to have heightened vulnerability should they be exposed to flood conditions. This is chiefly due to the presence of basements, or the constraints on adaptive capacity due to the status of some as heritage assets. Museum and libraries functions tend to be most vulnerable.

Risks to the University

Considering the overall potential impact of climate change to the University, the study highlighted a number of key risks to University assets and operations. These include:

• Decrease in staff and student productivity or impacts on staff health and retention due to heat stress and displacement from normal work spaces.
• Increased costs associated with repairing and upgrading assets due to increasing flood risk and/or flood damage.
• Impacts on utilities provision (e.g. higher water costs, constraints on energy supplies).
• Impacts on capital projects, such as weather-related disruptions increasing costs.
• Severe weather or flooding events impacting on student examinations.

What happens next?

The full report is being distributed to relevant staff and committees to encourage consideration of climate risks in the University’s forward planning.